Gold & Findependence
Since the price of gold crashed a few weeks ago, I’ve twice blogged on the topic over at MoneySense.ca, as you can read here. I’ve also done a bit of radio and TV commentary on the topic. As noted at MoneySense, personally I’m somewhere between the 5% “gold as insurance” camp and the “gold bug” camp that allocates upwards of 15 to 25% of a total portfolio to the yellow metal as a permanent strategic allocation in a well balanced portfolio.
My second MoneySense blog looks at Nick Barisheff’s just-released book, $10,000 Gold, a prediction which if it came true would mean a seven-bagger from the most recent post-correction price of $1460 or so. Of course, gold has started to recover from the shocking drop that grabbed the media’s attention earlier this month.
So how does gold fit in with the concept of financial independence? Historically, it has held its own in providing a degree of capital preservation. Anyone who experienced the hyperinflation of Weimar Germany or more recently Zimbabwe can attest to the value of “real money” when contrasted with mere pieces of paper that once promised to pay the underlying metal “to the bearer on demand,” but today are no more real than digits in a computer somewhere.
Bricks & Mortar are another tangible investment I like
So the question isn’t so much whether gold could possibly rise seven fold or ten fold from here, although that’s roughly what it DID accomplish over the past decade. The question is whether paper money backed only by governments with unlimited access to printing presses can continue to be perceived as having value. Just as real estate investors see value in bricks and mortar and the assured streams of income known as “rent,” so too do some investors feel comfortable having at least some of their wealth in tangible precious metals or comparable financial derivatives they hope will retain value if mere paper money falls in value (i.e. ETFs like GLD or SLV). As readers of Findependence Day know, a major subplot of the book is the conflict between Sheena’s desire for tangible bricks and mortar and Jamie’s preference for paper/electronic assets like stocks and bonds.
I’m a Capital Preservation Asset Allocation Bug
Does all this make me a gold bug? No, it makes me a capital preservation asset allocation bug: SOME gold, some cash, some bonds, some stocks and some real estate. And of course, that’s just the investment part of the equation. To this we should add employer pensions and Government pensions like Social Security or the Canada Pension Plan. If someone came to me saying they believed ONLY in their employer pension plan or ONLY in their Social Security or CPP pensions, I’d be just as worried on their behalf as I would be if they told me they had only paper money or — for that matter — only gold coins.
Together, this is my recipe for financial independence.