Why the Fed’s lift-off from Zero is good for savers and long-term investors

Fed funds rate-2By Joe Davis

Special to FindependenceDay.com

Vanguard applauds the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise short-term rates by 25 basis points. It marks the beginning of the normalization for a U.S. economy, which has made considerable progress over the past six years. Very rarely (if ever) have central banks successfully exited the zero bound and quantitative easing; we believe today’s U.S. Federal Reserve will ultimately prove the first to do so.

Dovish tightening cycle expected

We expect a “dovish tightening” cycle that will likely leave the fed funds rate below the rate of trend inflation for at least a year. Specifically, our non-consensus view is that we will likely see an extended pause near 1%, regardless of the near-term outlook. Reasons for an extended pause in the fed funds rate would include slower-than-expected growth—given still-fragile global economic conditions and the self-limiting impacts of further U.S. dollar appreciation—and the need and desire for the Fed to begin tapering the size of its balance sheet.

An unequivocal positive for savers and long-term investors

As this has been a widely anticipated decision, we do not expect any material impact on financial conditions in the short term. Indeed, we view the Federal Reserve’s decision as an unequivocal positive for both long-term investors and for savers.

In our opinion, those who claim that raising rates is a “policy mistake” that may derail the U.S. recovery underappreciate the still-accommodative stance of monetary policy and the resiliency of the U.S. economy. There is little to no empirical support showing a strong and material link between a 25 basis point rate hike and future U.S. economic conditions given the still-negative real fed funds rate.

Low-rate environment is secular, not cyclical

For bond investors who fear a marked rise in long-term U.S. interest rates, we believe that the low-rate environment is secular, rather than cyclical, and that credit risk in bond portfolios may be a more important factor in 2016 than duration or interest-rate risk.

Davis_Joe_10_aJoe Davis is Chief economist and global head of Vanguard Investment Strategy Group. 

 

 

 

Majority of Canadians support leaving TFSA limit at $10,000, poll shows

workingcanadians d23ad08526748111987b5e9b9fd1c19b_400x400Toronto, December 3, 2015 – A recent public opinion poll shows majority support among Canadians for leaving the TFSA (Tax Free Savings Account) limit at $10,000, not reducing it to $5,500 as the Liberal government is considering. This support is consistent across income levels, age, region and whether the respondent worked in the public or private sector.

Catherine Swift, spokesperson for Working Canadians said, “53% of Canadians are in favour of leaving the TFSA limit at $10,000, while only 19% favoured reducing the limit.” A total of 27% of respondents said either “it depends” or “I don’t know.” These results are consistent with other polls conducted on this issue.

Both public and private sector employees demonstrated similar support for a higher TFSA limit at 56% and 62% respectively. “Since very few private sector Canadians enjoy the generous, inflation indexed pensions that are commonplace in the public sector, private sector support for maintaining the higher limit is not surprising,” said Swift.

“Given that government employees are already very well provided for in retirement, the high level of support among this group for leaving the TFSA limit “as is” suggests public sector employees value the higher TFSA limit more than might have been expected.”

Support among all income groups

Keeping the TFSA limit the same enjoys considerable support among all income groups; support reaches majority level among respondents with incomes over $50,000. Respondents with income less than $25,000 exhibited the least support for leaving the TFSA limit “as is”, yet 37% of this group still wanted the limit to remain at $10,000. Support for retaining the $10,000 limit was also consistently strong across age groups, ranging from 51% among those 18-34 to 55% for those over 65.

The poll also showed support for the current TFSA limit among voters for different political parties. Of those who voted Liberal in the recent election, fully 52% want the limit to be left alone, as compared to 61% who voted Conservative, 51% of NDP voters, 63% of Green voters and 56% of Bloc Quebecois voters.

catherine-swift-speaker

Catherine Swift

TFSAs have only been in place since 2009, and according to Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) data, over 11 million Canadians have a TFSA, which is roughly half of the working population. “This is an amazing level of participation in a very short time,” Swift noted. She added “These poll results are another indicator of how much Canadians love their TFSAs, and want the current limit to remain.”

“Some people have claimed that the higher TFSA limit is only for the “rich” and costs the government too much in foregone tax revenue. The results of this poll and other data indicate that the higher limit TFSA is by no means something only the “rich” aspire to.

As well, the federal government spends tens of billions of taxpayer dollars every year on very generous public sector pensions. Surely the couple of billion in tax dollars foregone annually in running the current TFSA program is the least the government can do to permit the 80% of Canadians who do not work for government to save for a decent retirement for themselves and their families,” stated Swift.

Formal petition coming to House of Commons

Since launching the campaign to promote leaving the TFSA limit at $10,000, Working Canadians has been overwhelmed by positive feedback. As a result, Working Canadians established a formal petition to the House of Commons, which will be introduced by Member of Parliament Peter Kent in the near future. The petition can be found at www.workingcanadians.ca/saveourtfsa

 

This online poll was conducted between November 26 and 29, 2015 by Research House, amongst a nationally representative sample size of 1,012 Canadians who were 18 years of age or older.

Catherine Swift is Spokesperson for Working Canadians, a not-for-profit organization dedicated to opposing the negative impact excessive union influence has on the Canadian economy and society.

To arrange an interview with Catherine Swift, contact Gisele Lumsden at 647 466-5509 or by email: info@workingcanadians.ca